A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
